Many people are reading the Meta–Manus announcement as “just another mega bet on AI.”
That reading is superficial.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐤𝐞𝐲 𝐟𝐢𝐠𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 $𝟐𝐁.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐤𝐞𝐲 𝐪𝐮𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐢𝐬 𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐡𝐨𝐰 𝐢𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐝𝐞𝐩𝐥𝐨𝐲𝐞𝐝.
Why this really matters:
We are entering a phase where:
• Foundation models are becoming standardized
• Value is shifting to orchestration, agents, and verticalization
• Competitive advantage is no longer the model itself, but the entire system
What many overlook: the geopolitical angle
This deal signals a structural shift in AI M&A strategy:
• Less opportunistic cross-border activity
• More control over core assets and jurisdiction
• Greater vertical integration within aligned geopolitical blocs
In a world of increasing regulatory restrictions, US–China tensions, scrutiny over model, chip, and data exports
M&A is no longer just financial. It has become 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐜 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐫𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞.
Our view as a fund:
We invest anticipating this scenario:
• Teams capable of building AI-native systems, not just features
• Platforms with technical and geopolitical moats
• Companies that can scale within complex regulatory environments